thlsu.com.

Last week, Tesla CEO Elon Musk unveiled ambitious plans for the autonomous taxi service, Robotaxi, at its inaugural launch event, projecting the production of prototype vehicles called Cybercab without steering wheels or pedals starting in 2026, with high-volume production expected by 2027.

However, despite the grand vision, the harsh reality of U.S. government regulations poses a significant challenge for the mass production of Cybercab. Bloomberg reports that if a vehicle lacks a steering wheel or other control devices required by U.S. automotive safety regulations, manufacturers must first obtain permission from the U.S. regulatory agency, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), for such vehicles to be allowed on the road. Even if Tesla can overcome this hurdle, only a few thousand autonomous taxis would be allowed on the roads each year.

In cases where automakers receive exemptions, NHTSA typically allows about 2,500 vehicles to be on the road each year. This means that even if Cybercab were to hit the roads, it would ultimately be a niche automotive product. After all, Tesla delivered approximately 1.81 million vehicles globally last year, and in early October, it announced a third-quarter delivery volume of about 463,000 vehicles. Based on these figures, the potential sales volume of the Robotaxi business, once it begins production, would be negligible within Tesla.

Advertisement

On Tuesday, October 15th, Eastern Time, NHTSA stated that Tesla has not yet applied for an exemption for Cybercab to be on the road. To date, NHTSA has only approved one similar application in 2020, which allowed the startup company Nuro to deploy low-speed autonomous delivery vehicles for freight and passenger transport.

In addition to NHTSA's strict approval process, state regulations on vehicle highway operation in the U.S. also present obstacles for Tesla. In California, where Tesla was founded, Google's sister company Waymo and General Motors' autonomous subsidiary Cruise have already deployed autonomous taxis locally. Tesla has not yet applied for the necessary autonomous driving test or deployment permits required to operate in the state.

A spokesperson for the California Department of Motor Vehicles stated that since 2015, Tesla has held a permit to test autonomous driving technology with a human safety driver present, but since 2019, the company has not reported using the technology.

Mary Cummings, a professor of engineering at George Mason University in Virginia and a former NHTSA advisor, commented that obtaining state permits is a greater issue for Tesla. She said, "Tesla still needs several years to obtain the necessary permits in California before providing test data."

Following the conclusion of last week's Robotaxi Day launch event, Wall Street Journal cited comments from some media outlets, stating that once the excitement subsided, people realized that Tesla had only delivered an empty promise. Musk "hardly provided any new details about Tesla's autonomous taxi business model, such as predictions for revenue or market size."

Some comments pointed out that Musk evaded the issue of regulation during the launch event. "Musk did not elaborate on how Tesla will deal with regulatory obstacles to autonomous vehicles on the road, merely stating that the company will provide the service where it is allowed. Due to some accidents involving autonomous vehicles, regulatory authorities have conducted stricter scrutiny of related companies."Additionally, some comments stated that the press conference "did not have much discussion about how the company will invest in services, or the regulatory obstacles faced, nor did it provide details on how they plan to overcome these challenges."