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According to the latest analysis by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), global public debt is projected to reach 100 trillion US dollars by the end of this year, accounting for 93% of the global GDP. The IMF stated in its newly released Fiscal Monitor Report (also known as an overview of global public finance developments) that by 2030, the global debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to approach 100%.

The report warns that governments around the world need to take decisive measures to stabilize debt levels. The future debt sizes of countries such as the United States, Brazil, France, Italy, South Africa, and the United Kingdom may further expand, calling for governments to control borrowing.

Era Dabla-Norris, Deputy Director of the IMF's Fiscal Affairs Department, said:

It is time for governments around the world to rectify their finances. All countries need to make strategic adjustments to reduce debt-related risks.

He further warned that delaying action would pose significant risks:

Waiting is dangerous: The historical experience of the relevant countries shows that high debt levels can trigger negative market reactions and weaken fiscal flexibility to respond to future (economic) shocks.

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The IMF also pointed out that in the face of rising funding needs to advance the clean energy transition, address an aging society, and ensure security, there is a general lack of political will among countries worldwide to cut spending, which poses a significant upside risk to the "debt outlook."

Dabla-Norris emphasized: "The actual debt level may be higher than our expectations." The IMF report states that the number of countries with continuously increasing global debt is expected to exceed half and account for about two-thirds of the global GDP.

The IMF's "debt risk" framework shows that in extreme scenarios, by 2026, the ratio of global government debt to economic output may rise to 115%, nearly 20 percentage points higher than the current projected level. The United States' debt/GDP ratio could even reach 150%. According to IMF calculations, at the beginning of this century, this ratio in the United States was less than 60%, and it has now more than doubled.The IMF has noted that the rise in debt may be due to a variety of factors, including weak economic growth, tightening financial conditions, fiscal slippage, and increased economic and policy uncertainty. Importantly, countries are becoming more vulnerable to global factors that affect their financing costs, such as the spillover effects of increased policy uncertainty in systemically important countries like the United States.

Another reason for the actual public debt being much higher than predicted is the large amount of unidentified debt. An analysis of more than 30 countries found that 40% of unidentified debt comes from government contingent liabilities and fiscal risks, most of which are related to the losses of state-owned enterprises. Historically, the scale of unidentified debt has always been large, averaging 1% to 1.5% of GDP, and it has surged sharply during periods of financial stress.