thlsu.com.

Financial support for the high-quality development of the real economy has become more substantial. The latest data released by the People's Bank of China shows that at the end of September, the balance of broad money (M2) was 309.48 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.8%, 0.5 percentage points higher than at the end of the previous month, maintaining a steady increase. In the first three quarters, RMB loans increased by 16.02 trillion yuan, and the increase in the social financing scale was 25.66 trillion yuan.

Experts say that a series of incremental policies have been introduced recently, boosting market confidence, especially the flow of wealth management funds back to deposits, which has supported the growth of the total amount of money. The market generally believes that the effects of incremental policies will further emerge, and the quality and efficiency of financial support for the high-quality development of the real economy will continue to improve.

Financial total indicators remain within a reasonable range

Advertisement

Data shows that at the end of September, China's social financing scale increased by 8% year-on-year, and RMB loans increased by 8.1% year-on-year. Under the influence of multiple factors such as weak effective financing demand, "water squeezing" of financial data, and economic structural transformation, the overall situation remains within a reasonable range.

Since the beginning of this year, the overall effective financing demand has been weaker than last year, coupled with the impact of a high base, the growth rate of social financing scale and loans in September has slightly declined. After excluding the high base factor, the growth rate is generally stable.

After the recent introduction of a series of incremental policy measures, the market has responded positively to the two tools to support the stable development of the stock market, and market expectations have improved. The inclusion of securities customer margin deposits in M2 has also driven the rebound of broad money. A staff member of a joint-stock bank's Dongguan branch said that more than one-sixth of the bank's listed company customers are interested in understanding financing plans, hoping to use new tools to strengthen market value management and improve operations.

At the same time, after the announcement of several financial support policies for the real estate industry, such as reducing the interest rates of existing mortgages and unifying the down payment ratio for mortgages, the number of visitors and subscriptions in most first-tier cities has warmed up, and the situation of residents repaying mortgages in advance has decreased. According to a state-owned bank's Shenzhen branch, since September 25, the average daily application volume for personal mortgage prepayment has decreased by 60% compared to the average level in the first half of September.

Focus more on key areas and weak links

In recent years, as China's economic structure has been transformed and upgraded, the credit structure has also adjusted accordingly. The overall credit demand in traditional areas such as real estate and local financing platforms has contracted, while financing in areas such as green development and scientific and technological innovation has grown rapidly.

The growth of loans in key areas and weak links is a vivid example of doing a good job in the "five major articles" of finance. Data shows that at the end of September, inclusive small and micro loans increased by 14.5% year-on-year, long-term loans in the manufacturing industry increased by 14.8% year-on-year, and loans to specialized and new enterprises increased by 13.5% year-on-year, all of which are faster than the growth rate of total loans.Not long ago, at the World Manufacturing Conference, Wuhu United Aircraft Technology Co., Ltd. showcased products such as the TD550 coaxial unmanned helicopter. According to the person in charge of the company, thanks to strong financial support, the "drone base and supporting facilities construction" project has now reached 30% completion and is being put into use gradually. A medical device company in Zhuhai, under the support of policies such as scientific and technological innovation and technological transformation re-lending, quickly upgraded a factory with a production value of 30 million yuan and introduced new equipment to solve the problem of limited production capacity, laying a good foundation for the subsequent sales end to explore the market and enhance market competitiveness.

Orient Jincheng's Chief Macro Analyst Wang Qing said that with the high-quality development and structural transformation of the economy, monetary policy is more focused on key areas and weak links, increasing the activation of inefficient existing financial resources, focusing on the financial "five major articles" to exert effort, and continuously optimizing credit structure.

In recent years, the financial sector has introduced various structural policy measures to increase support for major strategies, key areas, and weak links. Zhong Lunlianhang's Chief Economist for Greater China, Pang Ying, believes that structural policies are ultimately aimed at serving the real economy, solving key bottlenecks in the operation of the real economy, and some policy tools will promote the smooth circulation of the real economy by reversing the downward spiral feedback in specific markets.

Everbright Bank's Financial Market Department's Macro Researcher Zhou Maohua said that the central bank has repeatedly stated that maintaining price stability and promoting a moderate rise in prices is an important consideration for grasping monetary policy, guiding financial institutions to scientifically assess risks, constraining the financing supply to industries with excess capacity, and more targetedly meeting reasonable consumer financing needs. At the same time, policy synergy is leveraged to deeply implement a consumption-driven strategy and promote the matching of supply and demand. Overall, against the backdrop of accelerated economic structural adjustment, transformation and upgrading, and the conversion of old and new drivers of growth, monetary policy will work together with other macro policies to support high-quality economic development.

Incremental policies boost market confidence.

Since the beginning of this year, to support the economic recovery, the People's Bank of China has implemented three major monetary policy adjustments. In late September, the Central Political Bureau meeting proposed to effectively implement existing policies, intensify the introduction of incremental policies, and further improve the targeting and effectiveness of policy measures. In response, the People's Bank of China quickly implemented a package of incremental policies, including lowering the reserve requirement ratio and policy interest rates, reducing existing mortgage loan interest rates, and creating structural monetary policy tools to support the stable development of the stock market, etc.

"Since the beginning of this year, weak social expectations and insufficient confidence among business entities have always been key factors constraining economic recovery. Monetary policy is ahead of the market, increasing policy intensity, and focusing on boosting confidence," said Wen Bin, Chief Economist of China Minsheng Bank. Regardless of the policy combination or individual policies, the recent central bank policy intensity is very strong.

This round of policy adjustments has grasped two key points: the real estate market and the capital market. Zhaolian Chief Researcher Dong Ximiao believes that this round of adjustments in the real estate market has lasted longer than in the past. The central bank has grasped the key point of the real estate market, optimizing housing credit policies in May, establishing re-lending for affordable housing, and promoting the de-stocking of existing commercial housing; in September, further lowering existing mortgage loan interest rates and the minimum down payment ratio for mortgages, and extending the implementation period of some real estate financial policies. The effects of previous policies are gradually emerging, and the real estate market has had a positive response. The stock market is a barometer of the macro economy and a concentrated expression of market confidence. Recently, the central bank has also created two structural tools to support the stable development of the stock market. A series of policies have been introduced, effectively boosting market confidence.